Event Review:

On April 2nd, the United States announced the imposition of a 34% tariff on Chinese goods. On the 8th, the United States raised its tax rate to 84%. On the 10th, the tax rate will be further increased to 125%, but a 90 day temporary suspension will be given to 75 "cooperating countries", and the tax rate will be reduced to 10%. On the 11th, the United States announced a 125% exemption from "equivalent tariffs" on some goods from China, but the actual comprehensive tax rate reached 145% due to the combination of previous measures.

During this process, China decisively took countermeasures and on April 4th, imposed a 34% equivalent tariff on US goods. On the 9th, in response to the US's 84% tax rate, China raised it to 84% and sued the US for violating WTO rules. On the 12th, we followed up with the US's 125% tariff, implemented controls on rare earth exports, and restricted the qualifications of some US companies to export to China. Subsequent impact analysis:

1、 Domestic molybdenum supply stable, new production capacity released in late third quarter

The domestic molybdenum concentrate production in the first quarter of 2025 was 78910 tons (equivalent to 45% grade molybdenum concentrate), an increase of 3.5% year-on-year compared to 76230 tons (equivalent to 45% grade molybdenum concentrate) in the same period last year. Compared to the 79990 tons in the fourth quarter of 2024, it decreased by 1.4% month on month. The main domestic increment is expected to be gradually released in the late third quarter.

2、 Less imported molybdenum raw materials from the United States

In the first quarter of 2025, a total of 1116 tons of molybdenum concentrate were imported from the United States, with an average monthly import volume of 372 tons, accounting for 7.1% of the total import volume. In the first quarter of 2025, a total of 648 tons of molybdenum oxide were imported into the United States, with an average monthly import volume of 216 tons, accounting for 29.7% of the total import volume.

3、 The impact on the chemical market is not significant

From January to March 2025, the domestic production of ammonium molybdate was 16700 tons. From January to March, China imported 543 tons of ammonium molybdate, including 541 tons from the United States; From January to March, China exported 104 tons of ammonium molybdate, including 1 ton from the United States, which can be ignored.

From January to March 2025, the domestic production of high-purity molybdenum trioxide was 7800 tons. From January to March, China imported 388 tons of high-purity molybdenum trioxide, of which less than 1 ton was from the United States; From January to March, China exported 608 tons of high-purity molybdenum trioxide, including 2.5 tons from the United States.

The above data indicates that the escalation of the US China tariff trade war mainly affects the quantity of ammonium molybdate imported by China. However, the US imports 0.3% of the domestic ammonium molybdate production, and the impact is relatively limited. The main impact is still on the market trading mentality.

4、 Export restrictions in the deep processing market

From January to March 2025, the domestic production of molybdenum powder was 5600 tons. From January to March, China imported 0.98 tons of molybdenum powder, of which 0.28 tons were from the United States, accounting for less than 1% of the total domestic production; From January to March, China exported 6.6 tons of molybdenum powder, of which 0.39 tons were from the United States, which can be ignored

From January to March 2025, the domestic production of steelmaking molybdenum bars was 1900 tons, and from January to March, China imported 0.54 tons of un forged and rolled molybdenum, of which the United States had zero; From January to March, China exported 514.67 tons of unprocessed molybdenum, of which 112 tons were exported to the United States, accounting for 6% of the total domestic production of steelmaking molybdenum bars.

The export side is facing more severe challenges. To counter the unreasonable tariff measures of the United States, the Department of Commerce has strengthened the export review of key minerals and their processed products through the recognition of "dual-use items", including the implementation of export controls on molybdenum and other related items from February 4th. These countermeasures have clearly hit the US military, electronics, new energy and other industries.

5、 International molybdenum supply decreases month on month

In February 2025, Chile's molybdenum production was 2498 metal tons, a year-on-year decrease of 11.4% and a month on month decrease of 11.1%. The cumulative molybdenum production from January to February was 5307 metal tons, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 11.9%; Peru's molybdenum production in February was 3448 metal tons, an increase of 1.5% year-on-year and 6.7% month on month. The cumulative molybdenum production from January to February was 6679 metal tons, an increase of 11.2% year-on-year, but a decrease of 4.1% month on month compared to November December 2024.

6、 Molybdenum iron and downstream demand are impacted

In mid to early April, the demand for molybdenum iron without long single steel was 5900 tons, a decrease of 33.84% compared to mid to early March and a decrease of 42.21% compared to mid to early April last year; In mid to early April, the total amount of molybdenum iron containing long single steel was 9400 tons, a decrease of 31.11% compared to mid to early March and a decrease of 23.84% compared to mid to early April last year. The demand for molybdenum iron was greatly affected by the impact of the China US tariff war. The downstream stainless steel futures market has recovered after hitting a new low since 2020 on April 10th, but the stainless steel spot market is relatively weak in demand due to the impact of tariff wars and fundamental factors.

In summary, the ongoing trade war between China and the United States has released some negative market sentiment, and the subsequent impact on actual terminal demand remains to be observed. In the short term, the negative sentiment will be exhausted, and the molybdenum market will rebound from the bottom. However, in the medium term, the supply and demand will be tightly balanced, and the upward space of the molybdenum market will be limited. Downstream pressure will continue to be transmitted, and the molybdenum market will fluctuate frequently.