Event Review:On April 2nd, the United States announced the imposition of a 34% tariff on Chinese goods. On the 8th, the United States raised its tax rate to 84%. On the 10th, the tax rate will be further increased to 125%, but a 90 day temporary suspension will be given to 75 "cooperating countries", and the tax rate will be reduced to 10%. On the 11th, the United States announced a 125% exemption from "equivalent tariffs" on some goods from China, but the actual comprehensive tax rate reached 145% due to the combination of previous measures.During this process, China decisively took countermeasures and on April 4th, imposed a 34% equivalent tariff on US goods. On the 9th, in response to the US's 84% tax rate, China raised it to 84% and sued the US for violating WTO rules. On the 12th, we followed up with the US's 125% tariff, implemented controls on rare earth exports, and restricted the qualifications of some US companies to export to China. Subsequent impact analysis:1、 Domestic molybdenum supply stable, new production capacity released in late third quarterThe domestic molybdenum concentrate production in the first quarter of 2025 was 78910 tons (equivalent to 45% grade molybdenum concentrate), an increase of 3.5% year-on-year compared to 76230 tons (equivalent to 45% grade molybdenum concentrate) in the same period last year. Compared to the 79990 tons in the fourth quarter of 2024, it decreased by 1.4% month on month. The main domestic increment is expected to be gradually released in the late third quarter.2、 Less imported molybdenum raw materials from the United StatesIn the first quarter of 2025, a total of 1116 tons of molybdenum concentrate were imported from the United States, with an average monthly import volume of 372 tons, accounting for 7.1% of the total import volume. In the first quarter of 2025, a total of 648 tons of molybdenum oxide were imported into the United States, with an average monthly import volume of 216 tons, accounting for 29.7% of the total import volume.3、 The impact on the chemical market is not significantFrom January to March 2025, the domestic production of ammonium molybdate was 16700 tons. From January to March, China imported 543 tons of ammonium molybdate, including 541 tons from the United States; From January to March, China exported 104 tons of ammonium molybdate, including 1 ton from the United States, which can be ignored.From January to March 2025, the domestic production of high-purity molybdenum trioxide was 7800 tons. From January to March, China imported 388 tons of high-purity molybdenum trioxide, of which less than 1 ton was from the United States; From January to March, China exported 608 tons of high-purity molybdenum trioxide, including 2.5 tons from the United States.The above data indicates that the escalation of the US China tariff trade war mainly affects the quantity of ammonium molybdate imported by China. However, the US imports 0.3% of the domestic ammonium molybdate production, and the impact is relatively limited. The main impact is still on the market trading mentality.4、 Export restrictions in the deep processing marketFrom January to March 2025, the domestic production of molybdenum powder was 5600 tons. From January to March, China imported 0.98 tons of molybdenum powder, of which 0.28 tons were from the United States, accounting for less than 1% of the total domestic production; From January to March, China exported 6.6 tons of molybdenum powder, of which 0.39 tons were from the United States, which can be ignoredFrom January to March 2025, the domestic production of steelmaking molybdenum bars was 1900 tons, and from January to March, China imported 0.54 tons of un forged and rolled molybdenum, of which the United States had zero; From January to March, China exported 514.67 tons of unprocessed molybdenum, of which 112 tons were exported to the United States, accounting for 6% of the total domestic production of steelmaking molybdenum bars.The export side is facing more severe challenges. To counter the unreasonable tariff measures of the United States, the Department of Commerce has strengthened the export review of key minerals and their processed products through the recognition of "dual-use items", including the implementation of export controls on molybdenum and other related items from February 4th. These countermeasures have clearly hit the US military, electronics, new energy and other industries.5、 International molybdenum supply decreases month on monthIn February 2025, Chile's molybdenum production was 2498 metal tons, a year-on-year decrease of 11.4% and a month on month decrease of 11.1%. The cumulative molybdenum production from January to February was 5307 metal tons, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 11.9%; Peru's molybdenum production in February was 3448 metal tons, an increase of 1.5% year-on-year and 6.7% month on month. The cumulative molybdenum production from January to February was 6679 metal tons, an increase of 11.2% year-on-year, but a decrease of 4.1% month on month compared to November December 2024.6、 Molybdenum iron and downstream demand are impactedIn mid to early April, the demand for molybdenum iron without long single steel was 5900 tons, a decrease of 33.84% compared to mid to early March and a decrease of 42.21% compared to mid to early April last year; In mid to early April, the total amount of molybdenum iron containing long single steel was 9400 tons, a decrease of 31.11% compared to mid to early March and a decrease of 23.84% compared to mid to early April last year. The demand for molybdenum iron was greatly affected by the impact of the China US tariff war. The downstream stainless steel futures market has recovered after hitting a new low since 2020 on April 10th, but the stainless steel spot market is relatively weak in demand due to the impact of tariff wars and fundamental factors.In summary, the ongoing trade war between China and the United States has released some negative market sentiment, and the subsequent impact on actual terminal demand remains to be observed. In the short term, the negative sentiment will be exhausted, and the molybdenum market will rebound from the bottom. However, in the medium term, the supply and demand will be tightly balanced, and the upward space of the molybdenum market will be limited. Downstream pressure will continue to be transmitted, and the molybdenum market will fluctuate frequently.
According to the report of China Securities News on March 11, Guo Guanghua, deputy to the National People's Congress and chairman of Xinhualong, suggested in an interview with the reporter of China Securities News that the molybdenum industry development plan should be formulated as soon as possible, the industry access standards should be strictly implemented, the cultivation of international large-scale molybdenum industry groups should be accelerated, molybdenum product processing trade should be moderately liberalized, and the healthy and sustainable development of China's molybdenum industry should be promoted.Guo Guanghua stated that China's proven reserves of molybdenum resources are over 20 million tons, ranking first in the world. At present, the domestic molybdenum industry presents a polarized pattern. According to statistics, small molybdenum iron plants with an annual output of less than 1000 tons account for more than 70% of the total molybdenum iron enterprises in China, but their output only accounts for about 25% of the country's total molybdenum iron production, and there are many problems such as high energy consumption, heavy pollution, and resource waste. Integrating small furnace material enterprises and improving industrial concentration is an inevitable trend in the development of the molybdenum industry.Guo Guanghua suggests strengthening macroeconomic regulation and gradually solving the problems of "scattered, chaotic, small" and vicious competition in molybdenum production and processing enterprises. Relevant policies should be introduced to promote the integration of molybdenum industry enterprises, and large-scale molybdenum industry enterprises with technological research and development capabilities, financial strength, and environmental protection measures should be encouraged to accelerate their development; Strictly implement the relevant regulations of the national "Access Conditions for Molybdenum Industry", prohibit the construction of single molybdenum iron production enterprises, resolutely ban the elimination of external combustion rotary kilns and the elimination of reflection furnaces in roasting processes, strengthen environmental protection efforts, and achieve large-scale, mechanized, and scientific production of molybdenum enterprises through technological transformation; Promote industry integration, concentrate production capacity towards advantageous enterprises, guide the transformation of product structure towards high value-added deep processing products, and cultivate international large-scale molybdenum industry enterprise groups.In addition, Guo Guanghua suggested that moderate opening up of molybdenum processing trade can promote the development of the domestic molybdenum industry by adopting a quota system for molybdenum processing trade and selecting qualified * * processing enterprises to carry out international trade business.
In recent years, domestic molybdenum concentrate prices have fluctuated, but the overall trend has been fluctuating and declining. Since the global financial crisis in 2008, molybdenum concentrate prices have repeatedly hit new lows. As of the 16th, the new price for domestic molybdenum concentrate with a content of 45% is about 1400 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 10% from the beginning of the year, to the historical low price level in August 2012, and a shrinkage of about 80% from the high point in 2005.Since mid-2012, enterprises in major molybdenum concentrate producing areas such as Shaanxi, Henan, and Liaoning have successively stopped production to maintain prices, but the actual effect has not been ideal. Only from December 2012 to February 2013, market prices rebounded due to reduced supply and steel plant purchases.At present, large-scale enterprises with raw ore mining in Shaanxi can control the production cost of molybdenum concentrate (with a content of 45%) around 1500 yuan/ton, while some small enterprises and enterprises with low raw ore grades have production costs above 1600 yuan/ton. The severe situation of falling below the cost line has led to a resurgence of proactive shutdowns in the industry.Some industry insiders believe that the dominant trend in rare metal prices is the supply and demand pattern of the industry. In recent years, the domestic steel industry has been sluggish for a long time, and steel mills have lowered prices through bidding and procurement. As a result, the price of molybdenum products, which are used as steel furnace materials, has fallen and spread to the upstream of the industry chain, also affecting the continuous decline of molybdenum concentrate prices.Looking forward to the future, the price of molybdenum concentrate has fallen below the cost line, but the terminal demand is not awesome. Although the supply is reduced, it is still difficult to transform into an obvious price support. It seems that the depressed price of molybdenum concentrate may continue to this winter.
The demand for molybdenum in the Asian market is active, with buyers from China entering the market and prices slightly recovering. The daily distribution price of Procter's molybdenum oxide is 8.25-8.35 US dollars per pound of molybdenum, rising to 8.3-8.5 US dollars per pound of molybdenum; The daily quotation for European molybdenum iron is $20.1-20.35 per kilogram of molybdenum, rising to $20.1-20.4 per kilogram of molybdenum.On August 28th, Platts Assessment was closed due to a public holiday. Yesterday, a European trader sold molybdenum oxide at a warehouse in Busan at a price of $8.35 per pound of molybdenum. A European trader stated that Chinese steel mills have frequent purchases and are strengthening imports of molybdenum oxide and ferromolybdenum from China. A Chinese trader said that paying $8.5 per pound of molybdenum oxide is still profitable. An Asian manufacturer stated that the market is full of confidence. The demand for stainless steel market is strong due to the strengthening of oil and gas construction.In terms of ferromolybdenum, it is reported that a German factory sold DDP at a price of $20.2 per kilogram. Austrian steel mill trades at $20.1/kg molybdenum. The current quotation is as high as 20.4 US dollars per kilogram of molybdenum.The domestic molybdenum concentrate market has seen a surge in transactions and prices are gradually increasing. The market is gradually improving, with an increase in inquiries. At present, the mainstream quotation for general grade molybdenum concentrate is 1380-1400 yuan/ton, and the mainstream quotation for high-grade molybdenum concentrate is 1400-1430 yuan/ton.The domestic molybdenum iron market continues to increase in volume due to steel bidding, with prices exceeding expectations, and the molybdenum iron market prices are steadily rising. The current mainstream quotation is between 96000 and 99000 yuan per ton.
After the high quoted price in the molybdenum raw material market was raised to 1410 yuan/ton cash and 1430 yuan/ton acceptance price, the market began to show a lively atmosphere. Manufacturers' purchasing enthusiasm expanded, mostly to prepare for production needs of steel mills, and some trading manufacturers were active in the market, causing the molybdenum market to rise recently and the situation to reverse to an upward trend.The production pressure of ammonium molybdate manufacturers is limited by the inability to operate normally, the pressure of environmental inspections, and the situation of increased production costs and insufficient inventory. Molybdenum deep manufacturers are gradually approaching transactions after increasing their quotations. The quotations for products such as large billets, drawn molybdenum bars, and large molybdenum rods have all been raised to over 200000 yuan/ton, and the quotations for steel bars, small billets, and other products have gradually been pushed to 190000 to 195000 yuan/ton.
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